Ideally, that player would be either Smith, the highly-touted prospect who couldn’t get off the bench this year, or Okam, the seven-footer who has shown flashes of being a defensive game-changer but presently has little offensive polish. But if Okam can learn a post-move or two, his size gives him the possibility of being a dominant Ivy starting center, while Smith is talented enough to be the same. If either steps up and claims the starting job, that would allow Moundou-Missi and Travis to remain high-energy guys off the bench, roles in which they are better suited. Lastly, don’t rule out Okolie, who could step right in and be a significant contributor as a rookie next season.
At shooting guard, I’m sure the coach would love to give junior Christian Webster back his starting job if Webster can revert to his sophomore-year form. But Amaker has also spoken very highly of freshman Wesley Saunders, who won this year’s “most improved player” award at the banquet and who played more and more minutes as the season went on. Saunders is probably already a more talented player offensively than McNally, and if he can improve his shot he has the potential to be a major factor next season. Either way, without Miller, the team is going to badly lack guard depth, with sophomore Matt Brown and incoming freshman Siyani Chambers likely being asked to play big minutes off the bench.
As I’ve written multiple times, my biggest problem with the 2011-12 team was its lack of a go-to scorer, and that’s where I think the losses of Wright and McNally may in a way actually help the team. The offense was a bit too balanced at times this season, especially down the stretch when everyone was hesitant to take the big shot. The losses of two starters should allow Casey to blossom much the way Ian Hummer did this past season for Princeton, when Hummer was asked to play a bigger role in the previously super-balanced Tiger offense following the departures of Kareem Maddox and Dan Mavraides. Casey, who will serve as a 2012-13 co-captain along with Brandyn Curry, has the ability to be the best player in the league, and will likely need to make the leap in his senior season from an 11-and-5 guy to something more like 18-and-9 guy in order to offset the loss of Wright.
Laurent Rivard’s numbers should improve as well, and if he can shoot anywhere near as well as he did against the Commodores on a regular basis, he could be in for a Ryan Wittman-esque junior season. But if Rivard doesn’t become more consistent, the team is badly going to lack a second shooter next season when he goes cold, as the Canadian often did this year. Without Miller, unless Webster returns to form, Harvard could struggle as a team from long range—never a good thing in the Ancient Eight.
Curry, while providing always-necessary veteran leadership at the point, may be asked to play a larger scoring role than he has in the past as well. If Curry can join his fellow returnees in increasing his offensive production to offset the team’s losses, it would greatly ease the burden on whoever replaces Wright and McNally, allowing the two new starters to merely need to provide more of a defensive presence.
Thus, if Casey and Rivard emerge as legitimate number one and two options, respectively, then I still see Harvard as having a great shot at a third conference title—especially if Saunders can find his shot and a starting center emerges who can play good defense and hold his own offensively.
Sure, the Crimson has question marks, but so does everyone else. Around the league, Penn, Yale, and Princeton all lose key pieces (Zack Rosen, Greg Mangano, and Doug Davis, respectively). The Quakers and, to a lesser extent, the Bulldogs, were essentially one-man teams who will need to rebuild without their stars.
But the conference as a whole could be deeper than ever next year. I expect big improvements out of Brown, which will have a new coach and regains star Tucker Halpern (who missed this season with mono) and talented freshman Rafael Maia (deemed ineligible this season by the NCAA). The Bears will possess arguably the most talented starting five in the league next season when those two join Sean McGonagill, Stephen Albrecht, and Andrew McCarthy, all of whom have the potential to be All-Ivy honorees. But as good as Halpern is, are he and what will be essentially a talented freshman center enough to improve a 2-12 team into a conference contender? Probably not.
Columbia should, on paper, also greatly benefit from the return of its star, redshirt senior Noruwa Agho, who lead the league in scoring two years ago. But as I’ve written in the past, the Lions were a team that had a lot of Ewing Theory in them this season, and if they weren’t good with Agho in the past, it’s tough to say they’ll be a contender with him next year, even taking into account vast improvements of Brian Barbour and Mark Cisco.
Cornell should be another improved team, and it will feature a talented pair of athletic forwards in Errick Peck and reigning Rookie of the Year Shonn Miller. But the return of Peck—who missed much of the season with a knee injury—is more than canceled out by the losses of Chris Wroblewski and Andrew Ferry. Barring major improvements from Miller and this year’s breakout guard, Johnathan Gray, it’s unlikely the Big Red will have enough to compete for a title next season.
That leaves Princeton (no, Dartmouth, you don’t get a paragraph), which has Hummer and a lot of question marks. T.J. Bray, Mack Darrow, Brendan Connolly, and Denton Koon all played 32 games and averaged five to seven points this year, so conceivably any of them could break out and become a good second option alongside Hummer. But right now, the Tigers to me look like a team that could be a lot like this year’s Bulldogs squad, with one great low-post presence but a lot of mediocre secondary options.
On the whole, it’s unlikely there will be any dominant team in the league next season. But the Crimson’s trio of Casey, Rivard, and Curry is as good as anyone else’s top three—maybe outside Columbia, who, unlike Harvard, has little other talent—and though we’ll have to wait until the fall to see what next season will bring, a three-peat is a definite possibility, despite what you may read in Kesslemania.
Oh, and as for that dynasty thing? We’ll let Zena Edosomwan and the other Top-100 recruits he plans to bring with him to Cambridge decide that.
—Staff writer Scott A. Sherman can be reached at ssherman13@college.harvard.edu.