Immediate courtship of Perot loyalists maywork, Peterson said. But he suggested that, facedwith the initial disappointment with theircandidate's unexpected exit, his supporters mightnot yet be ready to listen--even to thenow-familiar mantra of change.
As important as the uncertain future of Perotsupporters is the American economy, a factorequally out of Clinton's control. Bush'spopularity is inextricably tied to the financialsituation of the average family.
Incumbent presidents almost always win,Peterson noted. When they haven't won in the past,he said, "the economy has been in very badshape...and heading in the wrong direction."
Future Uncertain
Democrats cannot control the future any morethan they can predict the state of the economythis fall. But they can run on Bush's record.
"Talking about change is one thing," Brownsaid. "Implementing change is something else, andwe know George Bush has no ability to implementthe change we need in America."
Democrats now are riding high in the wake ofpost-convention euphoria. But the comingmonths--and the full-force launch of the Bushcampaign--will provide a test for thenewly-annointed nominee.
Peterson says Clinton is cursed with "very highnegatives," including suspicions about hischaracter and his political ambitions, that mayput him at a disadvantage.
Another Clinton disadvantage, Fiorina says, ishistory. "When people look at Clinton, they justdon't see Clinton. They see the Democratic partyof the last 20 years," he said.
Speculation in New York yesterday was thatRepublicans would begin a negative campaignagainst Clinton in earnest sooner because ofPerot's departure, and Republican Chair Rich Bondindicated yesterday that the Democrats' bitingconvention rhetoric opened the floodgates.
But Brown claimed Bush could prevent vitriolicspots--if he did more than just make statements todistance himself from producers like Floyd Brown,who developed the Willie Horton ads.
"George Bush could stop this nonsense right nowif he was the kind of leader we need in the UnitedStates," Brown said.
The advertising issue is less important thisgo-around, Peterson said, because a barrage ofnegative ads this year would not have the samedevastating effect it had in 1988.
"Michael Dukakis was, I think, really takenaback by the Willie Horton experience, and didn'tknow how to respond," he said. "Bill Clinton isnot going to take a Willie Horton and notrespond."
Most Democrats agree with Charles Morris, aClinton delegate from Selbaville, Dela., who saidClinton must "just keep telling [Americans] hismessage." And just as important, Morris said,Democrats must stand with their nominee.
"We have to believe in him and have faith inhim and then work for him," Morris said, "and Ithink everything else will fall in place."
Joanna M. Weiss contributed to the reportingof this article.