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The Thieu Regime-Great Expectations

Much of our time was devoted to a discussion of historical problems. It became apparent that at no time during the negotiations did the PRG have the slightest doubt concerning the desire of the Nixon administration to maintain a sympathetic regime in South Vietnam. If the prisoner of war issue had ever been important, it was because of the propaganda emphasis placed on it by the Nixon administration. As North Vietnamese Premier Pham Van Dong said in Hanoi September 2, in periods of escalation as well as deescalation, his government never lost sight of the United States's intention to impose its neocolonialist wishes on South Vietnam and to keep it from reuniting with the North.

After discussing the prisoner issue, Ly Van Sau said that the Thieu regime could not maintain its political prisoners without $50 million of U.S. aid annually. Pointing his finger at me, Sau said emphatically that it was the duty of American taxpayers to put pressure on Nixon to stop the aid. The thought occurred that Thieu might let the prisoners starve to death if the United States stopped its aid, but I kept my thoughts to myself.

At his weekly news conference one hour before our talk, Sau raised the issue of the Saigon government's use of defoliants. Although he did not have precise information concerning how Saigon had obtained the chemicals, Sau asserted that the Thieu regime was using them because that regime is anti-popular and cannot exist without the use of coercion. If Thieu sprays chemicals on PRG-controlled areas, it is because he considers them to be the new Vietnam: the city of Loc Ninh is the new Saigon-- life is cheaper, the people live better. Sau insisted that the Thieu regime had been doing everything in its power to prevent the PRG from rebuilding the economy and from producing rice. "They are trying to destroy us by bombs and hunger," he said, "but if they kill off our water buffalo it is a very serious problem for us for they are our equivalent of the tractor.

Congress did not cut off U.S. aid to the Thieu regime, but there is some hope that in the future it will continue to reduce his fund allocations. Yet, as the French scholar Philippe Devillers and an official on leave from the U.S. embassy in Saigon both impressed on me, the only laws that the United States respects in Vietnam are the gun and the piaster. Wars that cannot be won on the battlefield can be dragged on a minimal cost. Thieu may last for another eight years if he can stir up enough support from the right-wing chauvinists, Jean Lacouture, a French scholar and journalist, said.

But Thieu's great problem is that he wants more guns and butter, and Nixon is running out of both. Indeed, there's hardly enough night oil for Nixon to read Thieu's latest arms request. Thieu has flouted the peace agreement continually. He announced recently that his army has suffered 50,000 casualties since the end of January. Such a figure is predictable since his army has not had a moment's rest from attacking the PRG.

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In neighboring Cambodia the war grinds on. An interview with an official of the Sihanouk government in exile suggests that the chances for compromise are dim. In Laos, however, the signing of the Vientiane agreement offers some prospects for peace. Since the spring, the Pathet Lao have sought to seperate themselves from their old Vietnamese and Cambodian allies. In Thailand, conservative students overthrew the pro-American ruling junta-- wonders never cease! And of course, the U.S. Congress has clamped a lid on U.S. bombing and enacted restrictions on Nixon's war making powers.

Yet Thieu is still trying to pick a fight. The North Vietnamese and the PRG are preparing themselves for any eventuality. For the PRG, there will be more privations. The North Vietnamese leaders are anxious to repair war damage in two years and then to start a new five year plan in 1976. Without economic development, they fear that communism will not take hold in their country.

Thieu, for his part, has pledged that his country will be self-sufficient in two years. Yet, the more the Vietnamese parties cold shoulder each other, the farther away the realization of their great expectations will become.

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