After more than a year of negotiation France and Russia have signed a trade treaty, as a result of which trade between the two countries will be materially increased largely at the expense of Germany.

Attempts will doubtless be made to draw analogies between this pact and the Franco-Russian alliance which began in much the same way in 1890 with the extension of commercial credits to Russia by France. The reasons, which led to the forming of the treaties certainly bear more than a superficial resemblance; in 1890 it was due to the break in Russo-German relations after the collapse of the Reinsurance treaty and today it follows the alienation of Russia by the acts of the Hitler government against Communism. Then Russia desired support in the Balkans; now she wants the assurance that her European frontier will be safe from attack in the event of a war with Japan. In 1890, however, the treaty was directed primarily at Germany. This, I do not believe to be the case with the present treaty. France intends it more as a gesture than anything else for in the event of a war with the Reich in the near future she certainly cannot be so rash as to believe that she could rely on the support of the Soviet. Russia has shown that she will accept a great deal in the way of downright insult from the Nazis; and if there is one thing which would be anathema to her now, it would be to become involved in a general European war. Consequently, any such struggle would almost certainly have its inception in France-German irritation, and there is no reason to think that Russia would be willing to leopardize the success of the Communist experiment by entering the struggle.

The Soviet gains far more from the treaty than does France. If faced with a war with Japan they can look forward to passive support by the French in any case and to active military participation in case Germany should seize it as an opportunity to attack Russia. This phase of the treaty is most significant for the light it sheds on the fear with which Russia regards war in the Far East. For the last two years her foreign policy has been most conciliatory to the capitalist powers of the West. It is hardly likely that this extreme friendliness has been due merely to a desire to get commercial oredits, for while this has played some part, the real motivating factor has been the desire to create favorable sentiment in the West. That this policy has been so vigorously pursued would certainly seem to show that the Russians regard the coming conflict with Japan as more or less inevitable; particularly when one considers the warlike official statements that have been emanating from the Kremlin lately and the large concentration of troops in the Maritime Provinces.